An Inflation Forecasting Model for the Euro Area

Forecasting Euro Area Inflation Using Dynamic Factor Measures of Underlying Inflation

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Vii. Inflation Persistence in the Euro Area

Euro area inflation stubbornly above 2 per cent Headline inflation in the euro area has, on average, remained stubbornly above 2 per cent -the upper limit of the European Central Bank’s definition of medium-term price stability -for most of the period since mid-2000. This persistence may seem puzzling in the light of weakness in activity and is only partly explained by factors like oil and food...

Measuring Core Inflation in the Euro Area

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An Inflation Forecasting Model for the 1980s

Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the Euro Area

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the euro area, and investigates the linkages between them in a VAR framework, also allowing for the possible impact of the policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and inflation uncertainty have declined st...